Trick, definitely.

31 Oct 05

Happy Halloween. In case you're wondering, David was Pooh bear for the holiday. He was very cute. I might put up a picture later.

It looks like Microsoft got tricked today. After swearing it wasn't so, Take Two admitted that The Elder Scrolls: Oblivion will not ship for the holidays. It's been pushed back to their second quarter (February to April). As hard as Microsoft has been pushing Perfect Dark Zero, Oblivion has always looked like the star of launch lineup. Of course, I mean the actual launch lineup not the ever expanding 'window' that Microsoft keeps talking about.

The problem with the expanded 'window' is when does Microsoft expect us to buy a 360? I doubt they want them all to sit on the shelves until fourteen weeks after launch. I'm sure they want people to buy them as fast as they can churn them out. That's all well and good, but is the reason to buy there?

Right now it's unclear. Despite us waddling into the launch month with our stomachs sore from too much candy, we still don't have a firm launch list. Once we do, I'm not sure what the system seller will be. Perfect Dark has yet to look impressive and with its feature set, multiplayer balancing must be a nightmare. Project Gotham Racing 3 looks truly next generation and I think is the best bet for a system seller over the holidays (though capturing the casual racing fan can be tricky).

Kameo, I admit that I don't get it. It could be a great game, but if it's hard to understand why that is, it won't be a system seller. Dead or Alive 4 looks good, but so did 3, and it wasn't remembered as the system seller. The fighting crowd can be just as fickle as the racing gamers. Condemned: Criminal Origins looks more like a sleeper hit than a blockbuster, but they might tap into the the Resident Evil market (though it sounds like a very different game).

There are a lot of sports titles, but most are or will be out on other systems. I've seen some good clips from some, but nothing revolutionary. Need for Speed and Ridge Racer both look good, but also look like they're fighting for second place in the racing market. Amped 3 looks impressive, but have they made the gameplay more fun than the SSX series?

Remember Sony's got the doubt game going. They just have to convince people to hold out to the PS3 and hit their launch window. I don't know that Microsoft has given me a reason to buy right now. If they came down hard and stated that 360 games will not retail for more than $50 (excluding limited and collectors editions), that might do it. I'm an easy sell, but I'm sitting on the fence pondering waiting for the games I'm interested in to come out before I plunk down the cash. Just saying you're the hot item this season, doesn't make it so. We'll see what happens.

Jason