He saw the train coming but pull around the crossing arms anyway. Why?
4 Mar 05

You've heard of the phrase, "It's like watching a train wreck, I couldn't take my eyes off it." The worse it gets the more you watch and the more you think it couldn't get worse, but it does. That's kind of how I feel about Nintendo right now. I really hope they've got me. I really hope they're playing me. It's all just misdirection and they're not driving the train right off the cliff. I hope.

I mean everyone who played games at the time loved the NES. We were told that video games were dead. Nintendo refused to buy that. They insisted they had a good product. They opened up new ways of marking consoles that have profoundly shaped the industry today. Then there are all the great franchises that started there. Not just the Mario, Metroid and Zelda series, but Final Fantasy, MegaMan and Nobunaga's Ambition. Those were games that really propelled their companies along.

Some people have really bashed the Gamecube, but it's proved itself a powerful, capable system. The exclusives have made it a must own system. I still think the Wind Waker was one of the top titles this generation.

The Gamecube still must count as a disappointment. Nintendo really didn't close the gap with Sony at all. I don't know if there position is worse, but it appears worse since they couldn't even solidly beat Microsoft outside of Japan. I can see where that would be motivation to take some risks. I just think you have to take the right risks.

Nintendo's risk taking has had some troubles. There's the Virtual Boy, sticking with cartridges for the N64, ignoring online, pushing GBA/Gamecube connectivity and now the DS. The DS is clearly the brightest star in that crowd, but if they release a major new Gameboy, they could be putting a knife in its back. There is some talk that the new Gameboy won't be the next generation, it will just bundle in the media capabilities Nintendo is now rolling out as a peripheral. I don't see that move stealing the thunder from the PSP, but it's much less risky than releasing a new Gameboy generation that doesn't trump the PSP.

So what do we have today, but the President of Nintendo stating clearly that they're going to go a different direction and if they lose third party support, so be it. I could cry. Nintendo release schedules drive their biggest fans nuts. Without third party support to ease the wait, it will be that much more frustrating. Then there's the question of whether Nintendo today is capable of creating the new IP and beloved characters that defined previous generations.

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong, but it feels more and more like a death spiral. The worst thing is that it's so unnecessary. The market has grown and is growing. There's room for three.

Perhaps the best possibility is that Nintendo is reading the market correctly. Their Revolution will move away from endlessly increasing polygon count and toward better gaming. They will take back the initiative making more games, more fun, cheaper than their competitors leading everyone to jump on their bandwagon. I wouldn't put money on it, but it would be a fun ride.

Jason